--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       log:  D:\StayingAlive\Chapter9Replication\CrisesandLeaders\crisesandleaders.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  15 Feb 2004, 12:52:48

. do "C:\DOCUME~1\JAMESM~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\STD00000000.tmp"

. use crisesandleaders

. 
. * The next set of lines perform the Heckman analysis for internal removal
. * given that the country wins the crisis.  This is the first column of Table
. * 9.8.  It also generates and list the probabilities in the first column of
. * Table 9.9.
. 
. heckprob  internalleaderchange W effectiveS violent largeWviolent largeWviolentSQ smallWte
> rritory if monarch == 0 & outcome ~=7, select(win =  W oppW effectiveS effectiveoppS power
> ratio) cluster(midnum)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -351.07477
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -337.61334
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -337.58741
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -337.58741

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1640.9722
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1554.9597
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1552.8872
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1552.8787
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1552.8787

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -379.84465
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -336.49605
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -336.15921
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -336.15913

Fitting full model

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1889.4029  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1888.9505  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1888.9492  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1888.9492  

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =      4304
                                                Censored obs       =      3756
                                                Uncensored obs     =       548

                                                Wald chi2(6)       =     12.76
Log pseudo-likelihood = -1888.949               Prob > chi2        =    0.0470

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on midnum)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
internalle~e |
           W |   .3040837   .7625195     0.40   0.690    -1.190427    1.798594
  effectiveS |   .6718524   .5278025     1.27   0.203    -.3626215    1.706326
     violent |   .3718082   .2643298     1.41   0.160    -.1462685     .889885
largeWviol~t |   .0436483   .3623059     0.12   0.904    -.6664582    .7537548
largeWviol~Q |   .2752908   .2771714     0.99   0.321    -.2679552    .8185368
smallWterr~y |  -.4591809   .2686355    -1.71   0.087    -.9856969    .0673351
       _cons |  -1.792104   .6762023    -2.65   0.008    -3.117436   -.4667719
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
win          |
           W |   .8032501   .2324211     3.46   0.001     .3477132    1.258787
        oppW |   -1.00758   .1541966    -6.53   0.000      -1.3098   -.7053604
  effectiveS |   .7429745   .2066723     3.59   0.000     .3379042    1.148045
effectiveo~S |  -.1623018   .2217728    -0.73   0.464    -.5969685    .2723649
  powerratio |   .1667176   .2156293     0.77   0.439    -.2559081    .5893434
       _cons |  -1.381468   .1941868    -7.11   0.000    -1.762067   -1.000869
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |   .4831322   .2707055     1.78   0.074    -.0474408    1.013705
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |   .4487486   .2161921                     -.0474052    .7672902
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     3.19   Prob > chi2 = 0.0743
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. use probgenerate, clear

. predict winprob
(option pmargin assumed; Pr(internalleaderchange=1))

. list

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  1. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0365582         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  2. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0777608         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  3. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0121837         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  4. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0365582         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  5. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0365582         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  6. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0777608         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  7. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0777608         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  8. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0121837         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  9. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0121837         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 10. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0683728         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 11. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1417334         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 12. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2126462         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 13. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0683728         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 14. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0683728         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 15. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1417334         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 16. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1417334         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 17. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2126462         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 18. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2126462         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 19. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1313033         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 20. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2270964         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 21. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0571184         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 22. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1313033         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 23. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1313033         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 24. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2270964         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 25. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2270964         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 26. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0571184         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 27. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |         winprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .0571184         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

. 
. * The next set of lines perform the Heckman analysis for internal removal
. * given that the country draws the crisis.  This is the second column of Table
. * 9.8.  It also generates and list the probabilities in the second column of
. * Table 9.9.
. 
. use crisesandleaders, clear

. heckprob  internalleaderchange W effectiveS violent largeWviolent largeWviolentSQ smallWte
> rritory if monarch == 0 & outcome ~=7, select(draw =  W oppW effectiveS effectiveoppS powe
> rratio) cluster(midnum)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1747.3391
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1716.7195
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1716.6634
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1716.6634

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2350.9396
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2324.0131
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2323.9919
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2323.9919

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2279.7611
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1722.8757
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1716.3079
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood =  -1716.303

Fitting full model

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4040.7692  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4040.2739  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4040.2712  
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4040.2712  

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =      4304
                                                Censored obs       =      1015
                                                Uncensored obs     =      3289

                                                Wald chi2(6)       =     26.37
Log pseudo-likelihood = -4040.271               Prob > chi2        =    0.0002

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on midnum)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
internalle~e |
           W |   .1427658   .1341713     1.06   0.287     -.120205    .4057367
  effectiveS |  -.1621178   .1621611    -1.00   0.317    -.4799477     .155712
     violent |  -.0985512   .0859431    -1.15   0.252    -.2669966    .0698942
largeWviol~t |    .304399   .1191775     2.55   0.011     .0708154    .5379827
largeWviol~Q |   .1384408   .1129335     1.23   0.220    -.0829047    .3597863
smallWterr~y |   .1593073   .1089828     1.46   0.144    -.0542952    .3729097
       _cons |   -.685184    .230349    -2.97   0.003     -1.13666   -.2337082
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
draw         |
           W |  -.0681665   .1725529    -0.40   0.693    -.4063638    .2700309
        oppW |   .4279984   .1227345     3.49   0.000     .1874432    .6685536
  effectiveS |   -.365189   .1864886    -1.96   0.050    -.7307001     .000322
effectiveo~S |  -.0174259   .1621671    -0.11   0.914    -.3352676    .3004158
  powerratio |  -.0252875   .0393586    -0.64   0.521    -.1024288    .0518539
       _cons |   .6660959    .173337     3.84   0.000     .3263615     1.00583
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -.3563943   .4878493    -0.73   0.465    -1.312561    .5997728
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.3420341   .4307771                     -.8649221    .5368879
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     0.53   Prob > chi2 = 0.4651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. use probgenerate, clear

. predict drawprob
(option pmargin assumed; Pr(internalleaderchange=1))

. list

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  1. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2466139         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  2. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2165977         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  3. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2994869         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  4. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2466139         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  5. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2466139         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  6. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2165977         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  7. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2165977         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  8. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2994869         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  9. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2994869         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 10. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2937652         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 11. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .3682204         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 12. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .4214718         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 13. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2937652         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 14. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2937652         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 15. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .3682204         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 16. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .3682204         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 17. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .4214718         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 18. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .4214718         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 19. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1984134         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 20. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1721118         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 21. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2457281         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 22. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1984134         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 23. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1984134         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 24. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1721118         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 25. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .1721118         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 26. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2457281         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 27. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        drawprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .2457281         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

. 
. * The next set of lines perform the Heckman analysis for internal removal
. * given that the country loses the crisis.  This is the third column of Table
. * 9.8.  It also generates and list the probabilities in the third column of
. * Table 9.9.
. 
. use crisesandleaders, clear

. heckprob  internalleaderchange W effectiveS violent largeWviolent largeWviolentSQ smallWte
> rritory if monarch == 0 & outcome ~=7, select(lose =  W oppW effectiveS effectiveoppS powe
> rratio) cluster(midnum)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -306.21158
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -289.62473
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -289.53874
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -289.53873

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1477.8882
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1440.8671
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1440.4447
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1440.4444

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -323.69973
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -288.20981
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -287.82006
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -287.81989

Fitting full model

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1801.5271  
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1750.1052  (not concave)
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1731.4685  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1729.5011  
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.8821  
Iteration 5:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.3635  
Iteration 6:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.3478  
Iteration 7:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.2538  
Iteration 8:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.2517  
Iteration 9:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.2517  

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =      4304
                                                Censored obs       =      3837
                                                Uncensored obs     =       467

                                                Wald chi2(6)       =     16.48
Log pseudo-likelihood = -1728.252               Prob > chi2        =    0.0114

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on midnum)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
internalle~e |
           W |   .5367433   .4401003     1.22   0.223    -.3258375    1.399324
  effectiveS |  -.6396381   .4640809    -1.38   0.168     -1.54922    .2699436
     violent |   .3342322   .2044788     1.63   0.102    -.0665389    .7350034
largeWviol~t |  -.0620365   .5052707    -0.12   0.902    -1.052349    .9282758
largeWviol~Q |   -.148478   .4529666    -0.33   0.743    -1.036276    .7393202
smallWterr~y |   .0969887   .2883198     0.34   0.737    -.4681077     .662085
       _cons |   .8035356   .5323127     1.51   0.131     -.239778    1.846849
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lose         |
           W |  -.5748429    .170122    -3.38   0.001    -.9082759     -.24141
        oppW |   .5184014    .151026     3.43   0.001     .2223958     .814407
  effectiveS |   .0306926    .262322     0.12   0.907     -.483449    .5448342
effectiveo~S |   .4806686   .1774133     2.71   0.007      .132945    .8283922
  powerratio |   -.150526   .1973695    -0.76   0.446    -.5373631     .236311
       _cons |  -1.315317    .139148    -9.45   0.000    -1.588042   -1.042592
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -1.033359   .5532571    -1.87   0.062    -2.117723    .0510048
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.7752521   .2207408                     -.9714663    .0509606
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =     3.49   Prob > chi2 = 0.0618
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. use probgenerate, clear

. predict loseprob
(option pmargin assumed; Pr(internalleaderchange=1))

. list

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  1. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .7891674         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  2. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8723913         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  3. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8160794         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  4. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .7891674         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  5. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .7891674         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  6. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8723913         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  7. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8723913         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  8. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8160794         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  9. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8160794         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 10. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9099227         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 11. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9465706         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 12. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9284025         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 13. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9099227         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 14. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9099227         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 15. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9465706         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 16. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9465706         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 17. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9284025         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 18. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .9284025         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 19. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .5650941         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 20. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6908037         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 21. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6029099         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 22. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .5650941         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 23. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .5650941         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 24. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6908037         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 25. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6908037         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 26. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6029099         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 27. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        loseprob         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6029099         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

. 
. * The next set of lines perform the Heckman analysis for external removal
. * given that the country loses the crisis.  This is Table 9.10.
. * It also generates and lists the probabilities of external removal discussede first colum
> n of
. * on p. 450.
. 
. use crisesandleaders, clear

. heckprob externalleaderchange W oppW if outcome ~= 7, select (lose = W  effectiveS oppW ef
> fectiveoppS powerratio oppviolent) cluster(midnum)

Fitting probit model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -96.932379
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -95.665887
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -95.656144
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -95.656143

Fitting selection model:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1752.4735
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1645.9748
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1643.9282
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1643.9255

Fitting starting values:

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -404.79795
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -120.07966
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -91.145517
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -86.630639
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -85.903188
Iteration 5:   log pseudo-likelihood = -85.865371
Iteration 6:   log pseudo-likelihood = -85.865224

Fitting full model

Iteration 0:   log pseudo-likelihood = -4354.6139  (not concave)
Iteration 1:   log pseudo-likelihood = -3489.0334  
Iteration 2:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2461.7214  (not concave)
Iteration 3:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2199.7871  (not concave)
Iteration 4:   log pseudo-likelihood = -2030.7256  (not concave)
Iteration 5:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1964.3575  (not concave)
Iteration 6:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1932.4754  (not concave)
Iteration 7:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1916.7764  (not concave)
Iteration 8:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1900.3907  (not concave)
Iteration 9:   log pseudo-likelihood = -1895.0438  (not concave)
Iteration 10:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1886.2877  (not concave)
Iteration 11:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1822.8883  (not concave)
Iteration 12:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1806.9841  (not concave)
Iteration 13:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1785.0366  (not concave)
Iteration 14:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1762.6301  (not concave)
Iteration 15:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1751.8836  (not concave)
Iteration 16:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1741.1963  
Iteration 17:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1738.1579  
Iteration 18:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.9237  
Iteration 19:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.3061  
Iteration 20:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.1181  
Iteration 21:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.1069  
Iteration 22:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.1066  
Iteration 23:  log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.1066  

Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs      =      4614
                                                Censored obs       =      4030
                                                Uncensored obs     =       584

                                                Wald chi2(2)       =     16.99
Log pseudo-likelihood = -1727.107               Prob > chi2        =    0.0002

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on midnum)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
externalle~e |
           W |   .7989759   .2258191     3.54   0.000     .3563786    1.241573
        oppW |   .0619426   .2164683     0.29   0.775    -.3623275    .4862127
       _cons |   .3946911   .2187673     1.80   0.071    -.0340849    .8234672
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lose         |
           W |  -.9068339   .1573037    -5.76   0.000    -1.215143   -.5985242
  effectiveS |  -.1017829    .177021    -0.57   0.565    -.4487377    .2451718
        oppW |   .5538969    .150207     3.69   0.000     .2594967    .8482972
effectiveo~S |   .5153758   .1832231     2.81   0.005      .156265    .8744865
  powerratio |  -.2197302   .1580168    -1.39   0.164    -.5294374    .0899769
  oppviolent |   .4124497    .102019     4.04   0.000     .2124962    .6124033
       _cons |  -1.258402   .1724301    -7.30   0.000    -1.596359   -.9204451
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     /athrho |  -2.464005   .6662107    -3.70   0.000    -3.769754   -1.158256
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         rho |  -.9856223   .0190194                     -.9989372   -.8204709
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2(1) =    13.68   Prob > chi2 = 0.0002
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. use probgenerate, clear

. predict overthrowprob
(option pmargin assumed; Pr(externalleaderchange=1))

. list

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  1. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6760328         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  2. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6760328         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  3. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6760328         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  4. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  5. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  6. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  7. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  8. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  9. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 10. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8953713         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 11. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8953713         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 12. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8953713         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 13. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8836959         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 14. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8836959         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 15. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8836959         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 16. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8836959         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 17. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8836959         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 18. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 1 |        0 |       1 |        1 |        1 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .8836959         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 19. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6760328         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 20. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6760328         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 21. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    1 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6760328         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 22. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 23. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 24. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 25. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       1 |        0 |        0 |        0 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 26. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        0 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 27. | W | effec~eS | violent | largeW~t | largeW~Q | smallW~y | oppW | effec~pS |
     | 0 |        1 |       0 |        0 |        0 |        1 |    0 |        1 |
     |------------------------+--------------------------------------------------|
     |        powerr~o        |        oppvio~t        |        overth~b         |
     |              .5        |               1        |        .6534646         |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

. 
. clear

. 
end of do-file

. log close
       log:  D:\StayingAlive\Chapter9Replication\CrisesandLeaders\crisesandleaders.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  15 Feb 2004, 12:54:01
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
